China's Base Metals Sector in 2024:

2025-06-10 17:29

In 2024, China's imports and exports of base metals and their products (Chapter 15 of the Harmonized System) continued to grow, with export value reaching USD 285.78 billion (up 6.6% year-on-year) and import value reaching USD 151.32 billion (up 6% year-on-year).​

As one of the world's largest producers and consumers of base metals, China's trade performance in this sector reflects profound changes in both domestic and international markets.​​

• Exports: Steel Products Lead the Pack, "Green Metals" Such as Copper, Nickel, and Aluminum Soar Together​

1. Steel Products Remain at the Forefront​​

· In 2024, China's steel product exports reached $100.07 billion, marking a 3% year-on-year increase​​.

· Over the past five years, steel product exports have shown steady growth, rising from $71.1billion in 2020 and surpassing the 100 billion mark in 2022.

· Although global economic slowdowns caused a slight decline in 2023, exports rebounded in 2024, returning to growth.

2. Copper and Aluminum Exports Surge, Driven by New Energy Industry​​

In 2024, China's exports of copper and its products (Chapter 74) reached $14.02billion with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.6%, fueled by global expansion in new energy vehicles (NEVs) and photovoltaic (PV) equipment manufacturing, which drove demand for copper wire, copper foil, and other products.

Aluminum and its products (Chapter 76) exports totaled 39.56billion, supported by demand for lightweight automotive materials and energy storage battery casings, as well as increased domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity.

3. Nickel and Tin Exports Soar Amid High-End Manufacturing Demand​​

Nickel and its products (Chapter 75) exports reached $2.84 billion, with a CAGR of 54.3% over the past five years. It is mainly driven by robust demand for lithium battery cathode materials and China's strengthening position in nickel salt processing.

Tin and its products (Chapter 80) exports totaled $600 million in 2024, up 69.8% YoY. Rising demand for welding materials in semiconductors and 5G equipment boosted exports of high-purity tin products.

Export Market Analysis: Diverging Demand from ASEAN, EU, and US Markets​​

1. ASEAN: Strong Infrastructure Demand​​

Vietnam remains China's largest ASEAN market for base metals, with exports reaching $16.7billion, including $7.3 billion in steel and $3.7 billion in steel products, reflecting Vietnam's rapid industrialization and urbanization driving demand for base metals.

Thailand​(11.3billion)and Indonesia(10.3 billion) followed closely, with significant exports of steel, aluminum products, and other base metals supporting local infrastructure and manufacturing development.

Malaysia (8.6billion)and Philippines(6.9 billion) also showed strong demand for steel products, indicating that ASEAN countries are collectively in an accelerated phase of industrialization and urbanization.

2. European Union: Strong Demand for High-End Products

China’s base metal exports to the EU reached $31.2 billion, with the following key categories:

Steel products ($11.8 billion)

Base metal tools/utensils ($4.5 billion)

Steel (raw/crude) ($3.9 billion)

Miscellaneous base metal articles ($3.8 billion)

This reflects the EU’s strong demand for high-end processed metal goods.

Additionally, China’s aluminum products hold competitive advantages in the European market, with exports totaling $4.4 billion, primarily used in: Automotive manufacturing and Packaging industry.

3. United States: Dominated by Steel Products
China's exports of base metals to the United States totaled $30.2 billion, with the main categories being:

Steel products ($14 billion)

Base metal tools/utensils ($4.9 billion)

Miscellaneous base metal articles ($4.7 billion)

Aluminum and aluminum products ($4.2 billion)

Notably, direct steel exports (raw/crude steel) to the U.S. were only $600 million—significantly lower than in other markets.

• Imports: High Dependency on Copper and Nickel, Surge in Lead Imports Draws Attention

1. Copper & Nickel Dominate Imports, Highlighting Resource Gaps

Copper:

Import value reached $72.65 billion in 2024, accounting for 48% of total imports (↑15.8% YoY).

Reflects inelastic demand from China’s new energy and power sectors.

Nickel:

Import value stood at $10.66 billion (↓7.4% YoY), yet China remains heavily reliant on nickel ore imports to bridge smelting capacity shortages.

2. Lead Imports Spike 336% – Tight Supply Meets Environmental Policies

Lead & lead product imports surged 336.4% YoY, driven by:

Domestic supply crunch: Environmental restrictions tightened lead concentrate production.

Incomplete battery recycling: Lagging energy storage battery recycling systems forced imports to fill the gap.

• Challenges and Opportunities Coexist​​

​Challenges​​

· Escalating International Trade Barriers : Some countries and regions have intensified trade protectionism by imposing frequent anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on Chinese base metal exports, particularly steel and aluminum products (e.g., Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from all countries on Monday). These measures pose significant pressure on China’s exports.

· High Reliance on Imported Critical Metals : China’s heavy dependence on imports for key metals like copper and nickel leaves it vulnerable to global price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions. This dependency heightens risks for industry development amid global market volatility.

· Stricter Domestic Environmental Policies : Tighter environmental regulations have limited smelting capacity for metals such as lead and zinc. Concurrently, energy price fluctuations are raising production costs, eroding export competitiveness.

Opportunities​​

· Global New Energy Industry Boom : Rapid growth in sectors like electric vehicles (EVs), photovoltaics (PV), and energy storage is driving sustained demand for "green metals" such as copper, aluminum, and nickel. China’s technological edge in related processing industries will further amplify its competitive advantage.

· Recycled Metal Innovations : Advances in recycled metals (e.g., recycled aluminum, recycled copper) are reducing resource dependency and carbon emissions, aligning with global sustainability trends.

· RCEP Agreement Implementation : The rollout of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) injects new momentum into China-ASEAN trade collaboration. Southeast Asian markets’ robust infrastructure demands present a key growth opportunity for China’s base metal exports.

· High-End Manufacturing Expansion : Rapid development in advanced sectors like semiconductors and aerospace is fueling demand for specialty metals (e.g., high-purity tin, nickel alloys). This trend creates opportunities for China’s base metal industry to transition toward high-value-added applications.

Overall, China's base metal industry advanced steadily in 2024 amid challenges and opportunities.​​

The export mix continued to improve, with new energy and high-end manufacturing emerging as core drivers. Meanwhile, imports focused on critical resources, underscoring the urgent need for domestic industrial upgrading. Looking ahead, the industry must prioritize technology innovation, green transformation, and market diversification to navigate uncertainties in the global trade environment and solidify China’s pivotal role in the global base metal supply chain.